Coffee Stocks Near 1999 Lows as Prices
Certified arabica coffee stocks on the ICE exchange are near their lowest levels since 1999, while a Reuters poll forecasts arabica prices will fall to
Certified arabica stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have fallen to 226,242 bags, according to a market report from Sucafina. This level is just above the low of 224,000 bags recorded in November 2023, and a further drop would mark the lowest stockpile since 1999.
A separate Reuters poll now forecasts arabica coffee prices will fall to around US$3 per pound by the end of the year. The poll also predicts robusta prices will recover slightly to US$3,900 per tonne.
Market Forces in Conflict
These two factors are pulling the market in opposite directions. For roasters, the predicted lower price could ease input costs from recent highs. For producers, however, the market appears to be shifting from scarcity toward surplus. Poll contributors expect a modest global surplus of 1.7 million bags for the 2025/26 crop year. That surplus is projected to widen significantly to 8.2 million bags in 2026/27.
A major driver of this expected surplus is a projected 17.2% jump in Brazilian output to 75 million bags. Despite this growing supply, respondents to the Reuters poll said a substantial surplus is unlikely to drag prices down dramatically. They cite persistently low carry-over stocks and steadily growing global demand, particularly from emerging consumer markets like China.
Regulatory and Environmental Pressures
The low stock levels present a logistical challenge with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) set to take effect in January 2027. The regulation will add administrative work to rebuilding certified inventories. Exporters and roasters have only a few months left to buy and ship coffee before these new rules complicate the process.
Environmental shocks remain a wild card. The low stockpiles mean any significant weather event could quickly reverse the predicted price slide. The National Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers has stated that the emerging El Niño weather phenomenon, not a recent earthquake, is the biggest threat to Colombia's coffee sector. The federation reported a 23% year-on-year production drop to 1.06 million 60kg bags, blaming adverse weather that delayed the harvest.
Further disruption was reported in Nepal, where devastating floods from a glacial lake outburst have reportedly destroyed coffee farms.
Consumer and Corporate Shifts
On the consumer front, reports indicate US consumers are tightening spending due to inflation but still making room for affordable treats like coffee. The J.M. Smucker Company, which owns Folgers and Café Bustelo, forecasts a smaller-than-expected annual sales decline, citing steady demand. The company stated that price-conscious consumers are increasing at-home coffee consumption and that lower coffee costs have allowed it to reduce retail prices.
In funding news, coffee chain Blank Street raised US$75 million for a West Coast expansion and to add ice cream to its menus. The latest funding round values the company at around US$650 million.
The following table summarizes key price and production forecasts from the source material:
| Metric | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Arabica Price (year-end) | US$3/lb |
| Robusta Price (year-end) | US$3,900/tonne |
| 2025/26 Global Surplus | 1.7 million bags |
| 2026/27 Global Surplus | 8.2 million bags |
| Projected Brazilian Output Increase | 17.2% (to 75 million bags) |
New product launches include a canned coffee lineup from drive-thru brand 7Brew, now in 4,000 Walmart stores, and the launch of Indian Gesha coffee by Subko Coffee. In Belgium, food-tech company Koppie has launched OtherKinds, a direct-to-consumer test bed for coffee complements. All information is sourced from the weekly news recap by Perfect Daily Grind.
