Once Upon a Farm Targets $1 Billion with Cooler Expansion

Once Upon a Farm is pursuing an aggressive plan to become a billion-dollar brand. CEO John Foraker detailed the strategy during the company's first appearance at the Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference.

The company's foundation is its core refrigerated pouch business, which uses high-pressure processing (HPP) to preserve taste and nutrition. Foraker described the product as tasting "like a smoothie you made in your blender 10 minutes ago, four months later." The portfolio now includes fresh baby food, baby snacks, and kids' snack pouches, serving children from infancy to age 12.

Household Penetration and Awareness Grow

Household penetration has increased to 6.2% from roughly 5% recently. Independent brand awareness has nearly doubled year-over-year to approximately 11%. Foraker and CFO Larry Waldman credit strong repeat purchases for this growth, avoiding a typical tradeoff where rapid customer acquisition weakens engagement. Repeat rates are over 50% with households that have kids, with new families showing even higher rates.

The strategy of serving multiple age groups strengthens loyalty and increases basket size. Foraker stated that when consumers buy more than one category, their basket is "significantly bigger." The company's primary growth drivers are increasing household penetration, expanding distribution, growing assortment within stores, and adding more coolers.

Distribution and In-Store Assortment

Waldman identified household penetration as the largest long-term opportunity. The company currently has about 70% All Commodity Volume (ACV) distribution, a measure of retail sales coverage. It added nearly 100,000 points of distribution in the most recent quarter.

The next phase hinges on expanding the number of products within existing stores. The company averages just under 30 stock-keeping units (SKUs) per store door it occupies. Some retailers already stock between 60 and over 100 SKUs, showing a clear pathway for growth.

Coolers as a Key Growth Engine

Fresh baby food coolers represent a major opportunity for revenue and household penetration. Once Upon a Farm currently has about 4,100 coolers in stores and expects to reach roughly 5,000 by year-end. Each cooler adds about 50 SKUs and increases visibility.

The company previously estimated a potential for 15,000 coolers and now believes that figure may be conservative. Foraker argued that "there should be a fresh baby food cooler in almost every baby aisle." The company estimates the current fresh baby food market exceeds $50 million at retail.

A network of 15,000 coolers, each generating an average of $20,000 in annual sales, would create a roughly $300 million market opportunity. Foraker said the best-performing coolers have the right product assortment, strong retailer execution, and growing consumer awareness.

Innovation and Category Expansion

Foraker stressed that innovating within existing categories is the top priority to protect the core business. Recent innovations include meat-based products, legume-protein offerings, Belly Blends, and packaging improvements.

Alongside this, the company plans to enter a new category approximately every 12 to 18 months. It targets large categories appealing to the same family demographic, even if they are slow-growing, where modern consumer needs are unmet. The next category expansion is already planned for 2027.