US Food Color Demand Could Surge 500%
A new report warns that major US food companies' pledges to remove synthetic dyes could increase demand for natural alternatives by 400-500%, far outstripping supply.
A new report warns that major US food companies' pledges to remove synthetic dyes could increase demand for natural alternatives by 400-500%. General Mills has removed petroleum-based dyes from all its US cereals, including Lucky Charms and Trix. This completes a major reformulation pledge, with 90% of its retail portfolio now transitioned and the remainder, like fruit snacks, due by the end of 2027.
The report commissioned by the National Confectioners Association (NCA) and conducted by RTI International states replacing synthetic dyes is a supply chain transformation, not just a reformulation exercise. Demand for non-FD&C colorants could rise by 400% to 500%, outstripping current agricultural and processing capacity.
Major Brands Commit to Synthetic Dye Removal
The FDA's industry pledge tracker lists commitments from many of America's largest food businesses. Their deadlines largely fall between 2026 and the end of 2027.
| Company/Brand | Commitment Summary |
|---|---|
| General Mills | Removing synthetic dyes from entire US portfolio by end of 2027. |
| Walmart | Removing certified colours from US private-label foods by January 2027. |
| Target | Has completed removal from cereals it sells. |
| American Bakers Association | Eliminating dyes from baked goods for K-12 federal meals from 2026-27 school year. |
Other companies with pledges include Kraft Heinz, Nestlé USA, Conagra, Tyson Foods, Hershey, Grupo Bimbo, Kellanova, Utz Brands, McKee Foods, Campbell's, and JM Smucker. The NCA report notes that in 2025, products containing FD&C colours generated $57.8 billion in US sales, representing 7.1% of total food and beverage sales.
The Scale of the Supply Challenge
The US certified approximately 21.4 million pounds of synthetic red, yellow, blue, and green FD&C dyes in 2025. The non-FD&C market was only about 12 million pounds. Matching a synthetic dye can require ten times as much natural colorant or more because plant-derived alternatives are less concentrated.
John Downs, president and CEO of the NCA, emphasized the challenge. He argued that nationally uniform standards and regulatory certainty are needed to justify the long-term investments required.
Color suppliers are mobilizing. Sensient Technologies is investing up to $250 million to expand its natural-color manufacturing and supply chain. Sensient CEO Paul Manning calls the conversion "the single largest opportunity in the company's history." He estimates $100 million of its synthetic-color revenue could convert to natural alternatives at a revenue multiple of around 10:1.
Global Dependencies and Price Pressures
Natural colours depend on niche crops from concentrated global supply chains. The US is heavily import-dependent for key ingredients.
| Colorant Source | US Import Dependency |
|---|---|
| Annatto | 98.2% |
| Butterfly Pea | 99.1% |
| Saffron | 99.7% |
China supplies an estimated 76% of imported capsanthin (from paprika) and 75% of gardenia blue genipin. India supplies about 86% of curcumin and 74% of lutein. A sharp rise in US demand could tighten global availability and lift prices everywhere.
Michael Kreutzer, president of natural-colour supplier Oterra US, believes early movers will gain an advantage. Oterra notes natural colours must be grown, requiring advance notice to contract additional farmland.
RTI modelled three US demand scenarios through 2028. Its most aggressive scenario, a fourfold demand increase representing a compressed transition, would severely test the market. Under a more moderate scenario where demand reaches 2.5 times current levels, RTI's modelling suggests the average price of the non-FD&C colourants analysed would need to rise by 53% to balance the market.
